Seeking A Personal Antifragility

UPSIDE IN THE RIGHT SIDE OF CHAOS

This is a curation of insights, stories, patterns and heuristics I’ve discovered so far related to antifragility and how one might become more antifragile.

I first came across the concept via Joseph Campbell when he talked about the ‘insecure way is the secure way’. Ever since hearing this I’ve been fascinated by this concept – which I believe has always existed in our subconscious and even within old stories, until the concept was neatly coined as Antifragility – a term used by Nassim Taleb in his work ‘Antifragility – things that gain from disorder’. Within that work, Taleb elaborates on this concept via stories, anecdotes, mathematics and heuristics. This shared vocabulary helps us talk about this concept.

My aim here is really to continue my interest, follow my curiosity and share along the way whatever I find. I hope to learn more by collating what I stumble across, and then attempting to organise the information (further stories, insights) into some sort of synthesis (tools, patterns and heuristics) which I hope can help us recognise our warped sense of security and instead strive haphazardly and boldly towards a personal antifragility – a worthwhile ambition within a world that has always been, and always will be, uncertain and in constant flux.

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A Summary of Antifragility

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Articles

• Complexity and Size
  Smaller isn’t less complex Globalisation is a complex system, that is itself interconnected with other complex systems (financial, geo-political, social, etc.). Ten years ago, back when I lived in France, I remember shopping in a local supermarket store. As any good french (playing on stereotypes), I wanted to buy some onions, but to my surprise, when reading the label I… Read more: Complexity and Size
• Mapping Risks
  I’ve been thinking for some time now about the idea of how to map ‘upside’ and ‘downside’ visually. I was originally inspired by Diana Larsen’s ‘Prospective Analysis’ whereby new teams start thinking about a their assumptions and risks and benefits. It’s mapped out like below (taken from ‘Lift Off’ by Diana Larsen and Ashley Nies). As Larsen and Nies point… Read more: Mapping Risks
• Recruitment and careers
  Recently I applied for a research role and have been interviewing at work which forced me to reflect on standard recruitment practices and the nature of work itself… During the process I managed to both indulge my cynicism and respond with some sincerity to how we might gain some more upside as a ‘recruitee’ and aim to humanise our practices… Read more: Recruitment and careers
• Antifragility over Permanence
  “If you want to preserve a building, you will try to make it in materials which last and last forever. You will try to make sure that this creation can be preserved intact, in just its present state, forever. Canvas must be ruled out because it has to be replaced; tiles must be so hard that they will not crack,… Read more: Antifragility over Permanence
• Invest into Antifragile Start ups
  An interesting thread here about how many start ups are going to be laying off staff / downsizing / failing over the next year or so because the expected revenue can not give the return for the sheer amount of seed funding that has gone into funding the start ups.  Basically if 100m has been invested into building up a… Read more: Invest into Antifragile Start ups
• Improve your Uncertainty Tolerance
  Breaking through paradigms with uncertainty! “Paradoxically, uncertainty holds potential for both pain and possibility. This potential lies in your uncertainty tolerance. Rather than just the avoidance of pain, uncertainty tolerance opens opportunities reserved for those who embrace the unknown.” From the research, Conniff knows that not only is “uncertainty the number one driver of anxiety, but it is also the… Read more: Improve your Uncertainty Tolerance
• East India Company & Risk
  The East India Company became one of the largest companies that ever existed and controlled half of all world trade at one point. It’s beginnings (and it’s eventual success) are based on the innovation of risk taking: In 1599 Smythe and his associates had decided that, because of the huge expenses and high risks involved (expensive commodities, costly ships, crews,… Read more: East India Company & Risk
• Capacity for Adaptability
  Whilst watching a documentary about reindeer herders in the Siberian Taiga, the narrator said that the nomads have a ‘high capacity for adaptability’. It might just have been a throw-away comment, but it made a lot of sense and I wondered about it afterwards. Was it true? It was more than being adaptable. What was the capacity in reference to?They had… Read more: Capacity for Adaptability
• Trading in East Africa
  In a delightful episode of this series (Journeys to the End of the Earth), the photographer, David Adams, joins a crew of dhow sailors as they sail along the East African coast trading from port to port. They have no compass nor maps to rely on, and sail without motor and electricity – just using the wind on a hand… Read more: Trading in East Africa
• Complex Systems, Patterns, Wisdom
  Some extracts from Murray Gell Mann, and how it aligns with some of the themes we’re exploring as part of this community and how, as a community, we can actually thrive in a complex system. ‘Those who study complex adaptive systems are beginning to find some general principles that underlie all such systems, and seeking out those principles requires intensive… Read more: Complex Systems, Patterns, Wisdom
• Strategy and Inefficiency
  Edward Luttwak mentions many times throughout his work that in terms of military strategy, efficiency is undesirable. It was a wild a novel thought to consider that it was better to be inefficient. Weren’t we always trying to become more efficient? It only becomes evident when thinking it through from the perspective of an adversary who is eager to harm… Read more: Strategy and Inefficiency
• Robinson Crusoe: The Inspiration for the Modern Man
  Lewis Mumford writes that “the ideal man of the new order was Robinson Crusoe. No wonder he indoctrinated children with his virtues for two centuries, and served as the model for a score of sage discourses on the Economic Man. Robinson Crusoe was all the more representative as a tale not only because it was the work of one of… Read more: Robinson Crusoe: The Inspiration for the Modern Man
• Miners as Earliest Seekers of Asymmetric Upside
  “In contrast to the forethought and sober plodding of the peasant, the work of the miner is the calm of random effort: irregular in routine and uncertain in result. Neither the peasant nor the herdsman can get rich quickly: the first clears a field or plants a row of trees this year from which perhaps only his grandchildren will get… Read more: Miners as Earliest Seekers of Asymmetric Upside
• A Lasting Quality
  “If you want to preserve a building, you will try to make it in materials which last and last forever. You will try to make sure that this creation can be preserved intact, in just its present state, forever. Canvas must be ruled out because it has to be replaced; tiles must be so hard that they will not crack,… Read more: A Lasting Quality
• A Community as a Hedge Against Fragility
  In the book ‘You are what you risk’ a similar point is made about the risk ecosystem – “the cultural social, policy and economic environment that affects the risk decisions of an individual or organisation.” Wucker tells the tale of how a couple found themselves in $1m of debt but were in a better situation to respond and adapt compared… Read more: A Community as a Hedge Against Fragility
• Fixing the Vessel You’re On
  In the early 1970s, thrill-seeker and adventurer Alby Mangan goes on a six year adventure with his mate John which takes them all around the world as they more-or-less follow opportunities as they arise.  After working as brick layers on an Australian island, Alby and John become voluntary crew members on a Ketch sailing boat. They depart Sydney harbour and… Read more: Fixing the Vessel You’re On
• How do Black Markets Form?
  Fascinating insight from the book Shantaram by David Gregory Roberts who, after escaping from prison, ended up working as a trader in the black market for money in Bombay in the 80s.  How do black markets form? Wherever there is high control (regulation) plus high greed (acquisitiveness) then a black market will form.  Sewage is a highly regulated domain but… Read more: How do Black Markets Form?
• Almost Half of Americans are Financially Fragile
  Or ‘financially impotent’ as the author likes to describe himself in this article, and gladly includes himself in this group of financial ignoramuses – even though: But like half of Americans he couldn’t muster up $400 to pay an emergency bill.  “Research indicates that when people get some money—a bonus, a tax refund, a small inheritance—they are, in fact, more likely… Read more: Almost Half of Americans are Financially Fragile
• Passive Incomes
  Increasing personal freedom and antifragility through passive income (capital, code and content) Things I found the most useful:
• Adam Curtis on Risk, Change and Conservatism
  I listened to the first half of Adam Curtis being interviewed by Russell Brand. Some interesting insights that caught my ear related to antifragility: Through this interpretation, I understand that change and volatility has been suppressed whilst, throughout this time, the systems we live in have become more and more fragile (because there was never any opportunity to adapt and… Read more: Adam Curtis on Risk, Change and Conservatism
• Calculated Risk Taking
  There’s a nice chapter in the ‘Art of Action’ about the approach towards taking risks in the Prussian army: “There should be no fear of punishment if a calculated risk fails to pay off. Sins of omission should be regarded far more serious than sins of commission.” This links back to the notion of ‘risk taking’ rather than ‘risk management’.… Read more: Calculated Risk Taking
• Antifragile Metrics
  For some time I’ve been thinking about metrics for antifragility. I first came across Troy Magennis’s framework: the ‘Six Dimensions of Team Performance” (perhaps worth reading first) and remember thinking at the time that his framework was fairly close to describing an antifragile system already. I thought I’d have a go at modifying it and supplementing it, mainly as an… Read more: Antifragile Metrics
• What Does Risk Mean?
  If you think about the word ‘risk’ – what comes to mind? Throughout history, ‘risk’ has had slightly different connotations. Tracing the etymology, Michele Wucker provides a few clues into its various meanings, which could be summarized as: When I think about commercial settings, and the context in which risks are usually discussed, I think people would be better of… Read more: What Does Risk Mean?
• Absolutely Certain
  Yesterday, during the height of the latest European Football cup frenzy, I was driving around listening to a dreadful local radio station, and people were ringing in to the show to give their thoughts and opinions about the final between England and Italy. Some chap rang up and explained he was ‘absolutely convinced that England was going to win’.  Absolutely… Read more: Absolutely Certain
• Antifragility for Agilists
  Yesterday we hosted a talk at the Global Scrum Master Summit about antifragility for Scrum Masters (or any agilists, really!), and what Scrum Masters can learn and gain from antifragilty. We first guided participants through the concept of antifragility, starting with a story about chaikhanas (Afghan tea houses and how they’re antifragile), then we looked at an example from sport before we moved onto… Read more: Antifragility for Agilists
• Ernest Hemmingway: Antifragilista
  I watched a documentary about Ernest Hemmingway. He traveled and lived in many places around the world seeking out the wild and novel. Hunting, bull running, drinking, street fighting, poetry, womanizing, marlin fishing, etc – basically living life to the max – the volume turned up to full. A real character. What I found interesting was that no matter where he… Read more: Ernest Hemmingway: Antifragilista
• The Antifragile Career – Lessons from ‘Forever Employable’
  In the book, ‘Forever Employable’, Jeff Gothelf provides some valuable and actionable steps for ‘future-proofing’ your career. The approach has a lot synergies with the concept of antifragility. Jeff relates how he woke up “scared shitless” on his 35th birthday. What he describes is essentially a hyper-fragile lifestyle – a lifestyle that many are not only living but also aspiring… Read more: The Antifragile Career – Lessons from ‘Forever Employable’
• Problems are Golden Nuggets to be Mined
  if problems are golden nuggets to be found (a quote from ‘Getting the Right Things Done‘, Pascal Denis), have I ever thought about how to surface more problems in my own personal life? How would I do that?  I saw in the #RWRI conference a nice quote, ‘go figure out what will bankrupt you and then work backwards from there.’ So here… Read more: Problems are Golden Nuggets to be Mined
• The Challenge of Uncertainty
  Simplicity = Low uncertainty Take a simple system like a light switch, there are not really a lot of possibilities for something unexpected to happen. In one configuration of the switch the light is on, and the other one the light is off. The only thing that could possibly happen is that in both configurations the light remains off (I… Read more: The Challenge of Uncertainty
• Notes on Designing for Antifragility
  In this session, we looked at how to design for antifragilityHere are the principles put forward by Luca Dellanna and I’ll add some of my own comments (if applicable). Objectives trickle down, innovation trickles up.This is pretty standard for any strategy deployment since whoever is defining the intention of the strategy cannot also define how is to be achieved on the ground.… Read more: Notes on Designing for Antifragility
• Concave vs Convex
  If your situation has a floor but no ceiling, it’s probably convex. (e.g. upside / start up) If it has a ceiling but no floor, it’s probably concave.(e.g. glass ceiling at a company). An entrepreneur can gain from an error but an employee its the opposite.
• Adaption & Group Dynamics
  Just a few notes from a session last week about how group dynamics affect adaptive systems (in other words, how a group can stay antifragile). So far, we only looked at antifragile bodies and antifragile brains / behaviour. What about a group? You can only look at a group or system is behaving or adapting at a low resolution (e.g.… Read more: Adaption & Group Dynamics
• Antifragility & The Adaptive Brain
  Another very interesting talk from Luca Dellanna, this time about the adaptive brain. I think I need to listen to the talk again (this is my first bash, a few days after listening), but essentially we start off by realising that minimising one risk is not necessarily enough – nor even helpful. In fact, minimising one risk could even prompt a… Read more: Antifragility & The Adaptive Brain
• Hormesis & Antifragility
  Hormesis is a biological process in which exposure to a low dose of a toxin or stressor that is damaging at higher doses induces an adaptive beneficial effect on the cell or organism. An example from exercise: Another example Cold water swimming:
• 4-day Week – The Fridays Project (Experiment)
  The story behind the Friday Projects What is the Friday Projects?
• Antifragility and the Brain
  Top image shows normal “default” state where most of what we experience is predicted through top-down priors, i.e we see / experience what we expect to see based on robust instantiated patterns from past experience. This makes sense from information/physical theories as the brain tries to ‘minimize free energy’ and surprise. The ball falling and ricocheting illustrates the ‘fixity’ of… Read more: Antifragility and the Brain
• Interest Rates and Fragility
  Compelling evidence about the state of fragility in the UK.Because of increased cost of housing and cost of living, any increase in interest rates will have a bigger impact than in 70s even when interest rates were 14%! A glance at the BOI UK Interest rates today feels shocking. Some of the financial decisions I made regarding my housing costs… Read more: Interest Rates and Fragility
• SIPP Experience
  I’ve finally got round to choosing some shares for my pension. As a recap: I moved my pension out of an existing pension company and put it into a SIPP (a self invested personal pension). This means I can choose how I want to invest the money (shares, funds, etc) so long as it’s in the market. As it happens,… Read more: SIPP Experience
• Hacking my own Antifragile Investment Buckets
  I went through all of the FTSE 100 and categorized all of the companies into the following based on their company mission and portfolio of products or offerings. I also checked what types of jobs they were recruiting for. I paid no attention whatsoever to past performance since it doesn’t predict the future in a shock. Categories AgileRobust current business model… Read more: Hacking my own Antifragile Investment Buckets
• Why do we have Pensions?
  I’ve been looking into pensions and I’ve been reading a bit more about why they even exist. I stumbled across a Government paper which talks about how to incentivise pensions which gives a few clues. On the face of it, the pension is just a financial wrapper. It means that the money won’t be taxed at a later date.  A lot of… Read more: Why do we have Pensions?

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